Forecasting

The perfect forecast, if there is such a thing, has been the Holy Grail for forecasters since time (and planning) began. Not just in pharma, but universally, we see numerous strategies and tactics implemented to try to enhance data accuracy and new product planning.

In the food industry, for example, Mars employs a personal, human analysis of forecasting. In the telecoms world, however, we see a large focus on graphical user interfaces and Excel models, demonstrated in practice by British Telecom (find out more about this by listening to the Podcast).

And in our world of Pharma, Amgen benchmarks their strategies using scenario planning. Of course, these micro-worlds develop internally and what seems to work for one organization within a certain industry may not work for another. This, in turn, is leading to increased silos of communication about forecasting and planning best-practices - not just internally or at an industry-level - but is hindering the forecasting advances on a macro-level.

We need effective forecasting and planning to overcome the economic challenges we face now on a daily basis. The need for the forecasting community to come together and discuss, share, listen and learn from other verticals is pivotal in understanding how, together, we can develop a deeper understanding of forecasting and planning and build a more effective and accurate plan for our own businesses.

The perfect forecast it may not be, but collectively we can move much nearer to it. Take a look at our next conference, Business Forecasting & Planning Congress, Barcelona, 24-25th March, to learn more: Forecasting Europe 2009.

Ged Moore, director, eyeforpharma